Modelagem territorial do sus scrofa: perspectivas para o futuro e sua relação com uso e cobertura do solo

Abstract

Wildlife management is a control and management methodology. Wildlife is one of the most sensitive resources because it is related to environmental quality and fluctuations in the dynamics of interactions and needs of humans, as well as other species in the same environment. Invasive species such as Sus scrofa Linnaeus 1758 pose a direct threat to both environmental quality and the interactions of native species, benefiting from their adaptive capabilities at the expense of other resources such as agriculture, economy, health, and wildlife. Thus, understanding the capacities and trends of invasion can be crucial for more precise management focused on key regions. The study aimed to understand the recent spatial distribution of this species in Brazil, evaluating how factors such as environmental heterogeneity and land cover and use classes can influence its presence or absence. Data collection was carried out through official government sources and responsible agencies. Specific procedures were conducted to reduce errors and duplicities in the database at three levels: proximity, overlap, and scope, namely: less than 2 km², identical coordinates, and a distance matrix greater than 500 km². Initially, presence data across the country was collected and georeferenced, revealing a massive presence in the South, Southeast, and Midwest regions of the country. It was also noted that regions with greater heterogeneity in relation to Brazilian ecoregions tend to have a higher presence. The Potential Distribution Modeling of the species, executed through maximum entropy, a machine learning algorithm, highlighted this trend with caveats for specific regions in the North and Northeast of the country, which indicated little presence. The land cover and use associated with the species' behavior reveals opportunistic patterns, preferring mainly agricultural environments with clear expansion and permanence in forest cover and water classes.