Zona de Convergência Intertropical e Variabilidade da Precipitação no Estado Amazonas

Abstract

The study examines the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on rainfall in the Amazonas state, covering the period from 2002 to 2019. The central objective is to understand the ITCZ’s impact on the Amazon region and evaluate how its displacement and intensity affect the distribution and variability of rainfall. The investigated problem lies in the scarcity of detailed studies on the ITCZ’s role in the Amazonas state, as most research focuses on the Amazon region as a whole or the Brazilian Northeast. The methodology is based on Geosystem Theory, which integrates abiotic and biotic components for a holistic analysis of the environmental system. Observational data from INMET and TRMM satellite estimates were compared using Pearson correlation, revealing a strong association between the two datasets (values between 0.727 and 0.893), confirming TRMM’s reliability for climatological studies. Spatial analysis techniques, such as simple kriging in ArcGIS, enabled the creation of precise rainfall maps for the region, while tools like GrADS and CDO contributed to climate data processing and visualization. Results demonstrated that the ITCZ significantly modulates rainfall patterns in the Amazonas state. Variations in the ITCZ’s position and intensity impact not only the natural environment but also human activities such as agriculture and river navigation. Thus, the study concludes that the ITCZ is one of the most critical precipitation systems in the Amazonas state, and knowledge of its temporal and spatial variability provides relevant support for environmental management and sustainable regional planning.