Amazônia Ocidental: relação entre desmatamento e economia no Sul do Amazonas

Abstract

This dissertation analyzed the interrelationship between deforestation and socioeconomic variables in the municipalities of the southern mesoregion of Amazonas over a 25-year period (1999–2024). Within the context of the Legal Amazon and the “Deforestation Arc,” it highlights the intensification of the agricultural frontier driven by the opening of access roads from the Trans-Amazonian Highway (BR-230) and the Manaus–Porto Velho Highway (BR-319), as well as the growth of agricultural and logging activities. The general objective was to test the hypothesis that deforestation is associated with local economic growth, measured by GDP per capita, cattle herd size, timber extraction, and investments in agriculture and livestock. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, with time-series data collected from 1999 to 2024 from sources such as MapBiomas, IBGE/SIDRA, the Central Bank of Brazil, and IBAMA, followed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on a Pearson correlation matrix to identify latent patterns of covariance between deforestation and socioeconomic variables. The results revealed three distinct cycles: (1) a strong predatory advance up to 2007; (2) containment between 2008 and 2012 due to the PPCDAm; and (3) a new surge in deforestation from 2013 onward, reinforced by the flexibilizations of the New Forest Code and the weakening of oversight agencies, culminating in a peak between 2019 and 2024. It is concluded that there is a significant synergy between socioeconomic growth and pressure on the forest, requiring an urgent restoration of state enforcement capacities and a reorientation of territorial policies toward low-impact economic models. If this pattern is not reversed, it will compromise both environmental sustainability and the income generation of local communities.