Política monetária e heterogeneidade regional: evidências empíricas para o Brasil

Abstract

This study investigates whether Brazilian monetary policy had asymmetric effects on regional economic growth between 2004 and 2019, with particular emphasis on the North Region. Using a quarterly panel dataset covering Brazil's 27 federative units, the study estimates Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) models through the System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) for both the national sample and the country's five macroregions. The Selic interest rate and the M1 monetary aggregate are treated as national monetary shocks, whereas GDP per capita, credit, government expenditure, trade openness, and export performance capture the regional dimensions through which monetary policy is transmitted. The results indicate that a uniformly implemented monetary policy does not affect all regions equally. The North Region exhibits the highest relative vulnerability, as monetary tightening reduces credit and output more directly and persistently, whereas monetary easing generates significant positive responses. In the Northeast, the effects are transmitted through fiscal, financial, and external channels. The Southeast and South display greater resilience, associated with a more diversified productive structure and higher levels of financial development, while the Midwest reflects interactions with agricultural export cycles. The findings suggest that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on regional economic structures, underscoring the importance of complementary credit policies and fiscal coordination.