Impactos da mudança climática na distribuição de espécies de jatobá no Brasil

Abstract

Climate change, resulting from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, has caused alterations in global weather patterns, significantly affecting ecosystems, particularly in the Amazon, where biodiversity is facing increasing threats due to deforestation and environmental degradation. The species of the Hymenaea genus (H. aurea, H. courbaril, H. erigyone, H. martiana, H. parvifolia and H. stigonocarpa) are of great socio-economic importance due to their use in food, wood production, and folk medicine. Their preservation is crucial for local communities. However, shifts in climate patterns can potentially compromise regions where these species thrive, underscoring the necessity for conservation and sustainable management strategies. In light of these concerns, a comprehensive understanding of the present and future distribution of these species is imperative to identify potential losses in suitable areas. The objective of this study is to present geographic distribution modelling under climate change scenarios for species of the Hymenaea genus, with a particular emphasis on the conservation of genetic resources and the sustainable utilization of these species. To this end, nineteen bioclimatic and 14 edaphic variables were employed in the ecological niche modelling of Brazilian phytogeographic domains. The present distribution was based on the reference period (2009-2019), and future projections were evaluated in two SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) climate scenarios, SSP245 (least pessimistic) and SSP585 (most pessimistic), in the time intervals (2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). The findings suggest that these species exhibit a substantial distribution across the Amazon, Cerrado, and Caatinga domains, exhibiting optimal environmental conditions within these regions. However, projections for future climate scenarios indicate a substantial decline in their areas of occurrence, particularly under the most extreme scenario (SSP585), which predicts progressive losses over time. In contrast, the SSP245 scenario demonstrates smaller reductions and more stable rates of change. In light of these projections, it is imperative to implement priority conservation strategies within the Amazon, Cerrado, and Caatinga domains, acknowledging the ecological, social, and economic significance of species belonging to the Hymenaea genus in these regions. Specific measures must be devised to ensure the preservation of H. parvifolia and H. courbaril, given their cultural and economic importance to local communities.