Impactos econômicos das mudanças climáticas nos municípios do estado do Amazonas: uma perspectiva longitudinal

Abstract

Climate change constitutes a growing source of economic risk, particularly in territories vulnerable to hydrological changes and extreme climate events. In the state of Amazonas, the strong dependence on river regimes and environmental conditions makes municipalities especially susceptible to climatehydrological variability and atypical climatic conditions. In this context, this dissertation investigated the associations between climate anomalies and economic and fiscal indicators in Amazonas municipalities from 2014 to 2024. The study adopted a quantitative approach based on the construction of a panel database containing economic, fiscal, demographic, and climatic information for the 62 municipalities in the state of Amazonas. Climatic data were obtained from the TerraClimate database and processed to construct annual indicators expressed as standardized climate anomalies, calculated in relation to the historical municipal climatological normal for 1958–1987. This strategy made it possible to measure deviations in temperature, precipitation, and water-availability conditions from local historical patterns. Economic and fiscal variables were obtained from official national databases and integrated into a longitudinal structure compatible with the proposed analyses. The empirical strategy comprised exploratory data analysis, canonical correlation analysis, and the estimation of panel data econometric models, including different specifications, temporal structures, and diagnostic tests aimed at assessing the robustness of the results. In addition, complementary analyses were conducted to investigate associations related to the occurrence of extreme climate events. The findings showed that variables associated with hydrological conditions had greater explanatory power for the analyzed indicators than thermal variables. The estimated associations were more consistent for municipal fiscal indicators than for real gross domestic product per capita and displayed heterogeneous patterns across municipalities and model specifications. The evidence reinforces the relevance of incorporating climatehydrological risks into municipal planning and public management. As a technical-technological product, the Technical Manual for Building Applied Databases was developed to systematize procedures for the extraction, processing, updating, and integration of economic and climatic data for municipalscale analyses.