Danos hidroclimáticos: os custos econômicos causados por eventos extremos no Amazonas

Abstract

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme hydroclimatic events, such as floods, droughts, heavy rainfall, and forest fires, represent major socioeconomic and environmental challenges in Amazonas. These phenomena, intensified by climate change, affect infrastructure, production chains, and the livelihoods of riverine and urban populations, generating direct and indirect economic costs that compromise public policies and structural investments. This study aimed to identify and assess the economic costs caused by hydroclimatic disasters in the state, considering public and private losses as well as opportunity costs, to support risk management decisions and the formulation of adaptation and mitigation policies. An exploratory and quantitative approach was applied to all 62 municipalities between 2009 and 2023, using official data from the Digital Disaster Atlas, adjusted for inflation and analyzed through descriptive statistics, simple linear regression, and count models. Results reveal predominance of losses in the public sector, particularly in infrastructure, emergency assistance, and essential services—with accumulated values in the billions, alongside significant private losses, especially in agriculture and commerce. The observed patterns highlight the urgency of preventive policies, resilient infrastructure investments, early warning systems, intergovernmental integration, and expanded financial instruments such as agricultural and catastrophe insurance. It is concluded that internalizing environmental and social costs into local economies and adopting nature-based solutions are strategic to reducing vulnerabilities and ensuring economic and social sustainability in the face of climate change impacts in the Amazon.