Modelagem de Nicho ecológico para conservação e uso sustentável de espécies do gênero Paullinia em cenários de mudança climática

Abstract

Global biodiversity is under increasing threat due to climate change and anthropogenic activities such as deforestation and intensive agriculture. In this context, the present study analyzes the ecological niche of four species of the genus Paullinia: Paullinia alata, Paullinia cupana (guaranazeiro), Paullinia pinnata and Paullinia weinmanniifolia focusing on their current and future distribution under projected climate scenarios. Georeferenced data were obtained from databases and virtual herbaria, processed to avoid sampling bias and combined with 33 environmental variables, including bioclimatic and edaphic characteristics, for the construction of predictive models of high quality.The results indicated significant differences in the adaptation of species to climate scenarios. P. alata and P. cupana showed greater persistence capacity, with adequate areas predominating in the Amazon domain and potential expansion to the Cerrado and Caatinga. On the other hand, P. pinnata and P. weinmanniifolia showed greater sensitivity to climate change, with significant loss of suitable habitats, especially in more pessimistic scenarios. The climatic variables related to temperature and precipitation were those that most influenced the distribution of species. The modeling revealed the importance of climatic refuges, such as the Amazon and part of the Cerrado, for the preservation of genetic diversity and the mitigation of climate impacts. The study reinforces the need for integrated actions that include sustainable management, the development of agroforestry systems and the encouragement of public policies that protect natural habitats and promote resilient agricultural practices. These strategies are essential to ensure the ecological and socioeconomic sustainability of the communities that depend on these species.