Predição da distribuição natural e conservação de espécies florestais na Amazônia brasileira

Abstract

Studies using Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) emphasize the vulnerability of forest species to climate change and their significance in conservation. This study analyzed the distribution of five forest species from the Amazon that are targeted of illegal deforestation, Aspidosperma desmanthum Benth. ex Müll. Arg., Cariniana micranta Ducke, Clarisia racemosa Ruiz & Pav., Couratari oblongifolia Ducke & Knuth e Vouchysia guianensis Aubl., predicting the impacts of climate change and identifying areas for their conservation within the Amazon biome. For this, Principal Component Analyses (PCAs) were used with the aim of reducing the collinearity of the analyzed bioclimatic and edaphic variables. Initially, thirteen algorithms were tested, the results showed that there is no ideal algorithm for all species, but based on the average results, a consensus model was proposed using the algorithms that exhibited the best performance for the analyzed dataset. From the consensus model, the study indicated that under the most pessimistic scenario of predictions, considering that we would continue with high emissions of Greenhouse Gases due to the use of fossil fuels, SSP5-8.5, the losses of areas with potential occurrence for the studied species were more significant. In addition to losses caused by climate change, the loss of suitable areas due to deforestation is also anticipated. Therefore, conservation and deforestation reduction policies are recommended in areas of occurrence for Amazonian species targeted by illegal deforestation, in order to prevent the reduction of genetic variability and the number of individuals.